{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "Dataset",
 "name": "Operative Semiotics — Predictions & Builds Register",
 "description": "The curated register behind operativesemiotics.org/open/: three classes — experimental predictions (resolve by running a frozen protocol or checking an observable), applied-theory predictions (resolve by watching a live system the theory was applied to), and unimplemented software builds (resolve by construction). Every entry links its primary sources in the Alexanarch record layer. Results obtained by others are admissible on the same terms as results obtained here; nothing requires permission.",
 "version": "2.4",
 "date": "2026-09-28",
 "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "creator": "Lee Sharks (ORCID 0009-0000-1599-0703)",
 "classes": {
  "experimental": "Experimental predictions — pre-registered; resolve by running a frozen protocol or checking a stated observable, often on a date. The world or the instrument does the work; you check.",
  "applied-theory": "Predictions from applied theory — the theory applied to a live system; resolve by watching the system evolve. Directional, longer horizons, updated as evidence files in.",
  "unbuilt": "Unimplemented software builds — instruments specified but unconstructed; resolve by building. Each states what it would measure and what its absence currently excuses."
 },
 "status_vocabulary": [
  "open",
  "in-progress",
  "partial",
  "supported",
  "disconfirmed",
  "built",
  "superseded"
 ],
 "honesty": "Statuses are curated and hand-verified; where a status could not be determined it says so rather than guessing. Six predictions in the whole-archive ledger have resolved wrong and are preserved as such — a register whose entries all came true would be evidence of a register written after the fact.",
 "intake_note": "data/archive-intake.json snapshots the whole-archive prediction registry (190 machine-extracted predictions from deposit falsification apparatus). Entries graduate from intake to this register by triage: classed, sourced, given a check route and a status.",
 "entries": [
  {
   "id": "P-EXPORT-RESUMES",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Zenodo's deletion export resumes after the cron fix",
   "statement": "A stoppage with an identified mechanism should end when the mechanism is repaired.",
   "check": "GET zenodo.org/api/exporter — a records-deleted.csv.gz version created after 2026-08-20 confirms; nothing by the check date disconfirms.",
   "requires": "curl",
   "effort": "one API call",
   "due": "2026-09-10",
   "settles": "Confirms the mundane explanation BY PREDICTION rather than inference — a stronger position than the one the archive currently holds.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "supported",
   "status_note": "Checked 2026-09-28, GET zenodo.org/api/exporter: records-deleted.csv.gz has a version created 2026-09-05, inside the window (due 2026-09-10). Earlier versions 2026-07-10 and 2026-06-07; none in August — the stoppage, then the resumption. Confirmed by prediction, as the card set out."
  },
  {
   "id": "P-STALE-INDEX",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The crimson-hexagonal address stops naming Zenodo as host",
   "statement": "A composition layer reporting a stale state should update once the source surfaces propagate.",
   "check": "Re-run the address on Bing Copilot. Still returning Zenodo as host a month after the archive's surfaces changed disconfirms.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "one query, one capture",
   "due": "2026-09-23",
   "settles": "The withdrawn finding's only route back.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#crimson-hexagonal-bing-copilot-20260928",
     "note": "the check, with transcript"
    }
   ],
   "status": "disconfirmed",
   "status_note": "Checked 2026-09-28, Bing Copilot, signed out, incognito, at 'crimson hexagonal': 'over 480 deposits hosted on CERN's Zenodo repository', word for word from 2026-08-23, 101 days after the termination. The composition also dropped the author ('maintained by Lee Sharks in Detroit' → 'managed by independent scholars'). The stale state did not update."
  },
  {
   "id": "P-INTERVENTION-180",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "SPXI treatment raises archive source share on the UNPREFIXED address",
   "statement": "Inscribing the discriminating coordinates should alter composition-layer behaviour.",
   "check": "Re-run the prefix battery, signed out, same surfaces, three epochs. Success: share above zero on the bare address.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "four addresses × three epochs",
   "due": "2026-09-22 / 2026-11-21 / 2027-02-19",
   "settles": "#1535 declared itself an intervention. This is whether it executed.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1535,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1535/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "P-PEO-COHORT-2",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Second global cohort epoch",
   "statement": "A publication-year cohort should be monotonically non-decreasing; any decrease is erasure.",
   "check": "scripts/peo_cohort_epoch.py — runs and diffs automatically.",
   "requires": "curl (script provided)",
   "effort": "37 API calls",
   "due": "2026-09-23",
   "settles": "The baseline's entire value is that a second epoch can exist.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "P-PEO-PANEL-2",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Second fixed-panel epoch",
   "statement": "Re-querying a frozen DOI set measures erasure directly; minting cannot mask it.",
   "check": "scripts/peo_panel_epoch.py — 404 rate is the erasure rate.",
   "requires": "curl (script provided)",
   "effort": "720 API calls",
   "due": "2026-09-23",
   "settles": "First direct measurement of global erasure the archive has ever taken.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "P-PHASE2-PROLIF",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "Adjacent disciplines exhibit the Phase-2 Proliferation signature",
   "statement": "Applied from #106, registered 2026-05-15. The exact prediction text and window need recovery from the source.",
   "check": "Recover the exact prediction text and its window from #106; then monitor.",
   "requires": "reading #106",
   "effort": "unknown — needs reading",
   "due": "stated in #106",
   "settles": "The archive's oldest live theory-prediction. Currently unmonitored.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 106,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/106/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "OPB-01",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The Operativity Penalty Battery",
   "statement": "Registered hypothesis with frozen protocol; §7's seven statistical parameters must each hold a number before the first score.",
   "check": "Instantiate §7. Assemble Family A. Run the two-reviewer harm-constancy panel.",
   "requires": "access to 2+ model surfaces; 3 blind reviewers",
   "effort": "high — item construction, blind review, blind scoring, three arms",
   "settles": "Turns the developmental-convergence thesis from claim into coefficient.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1537,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1537/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "QFO-01",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Qurʾanic Frozen Operator Test",
   "statement": "Positive-control loci not locked from #1532; control panels unscored.",
   "check": "Lock loci, score positives and negatives, fix the admissible region, then open U.",
   "requires": "the seated corpora (public)",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "P_material for the Sappho transform-family in a fourth corpus.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1533,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1533/",
     "note": ""
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1532,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1532/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "M6-CT-02",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The relational instrument",
   "statement": "UNDEPOSITED, and a granularity question is open: O_UR gives five stations, M1–M9 gives nine, Fragment 31's own order gives ten.",
   "check": "Settle granularity, deposit, score positives and hard negatives, fix threshold.",
   "requires": "the seated corpora (public)",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "CT-01's null is uninformative about the relational channel; this is the channel.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "PEARSON-FALSIFIER",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Can OS operators be written as TOS strings without remainder?",
   "statement": "Not attempted. #1535 §10 says the archive should attempt it directly rather than wait.",
   "check": "Attempt the translation on the nine Codex operators, now that #1534 is seated.",
   "requires": "Pearson 1998 + the Operator Codex (both public)",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "THE STRONGEST AVAILABLE DEFEATER of #1535. If it succeeds, operative semiotics is a domain application of TOS.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1535,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1535/",
     "note": ""
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1534,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1534/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "INVERSION-T3",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Battery v0.3 — T3 and the faithful-NAE cell",
   "statement": "Unrun. The deposit states T3 decides which numbers survive honest intervals.",
   "check": "Close T3 and the NAE constituent cell before the empirical paper mints.",
   "requires": "GPU; the battery code",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "Blocks ACRB (#1454) and the accelerator series' empirical paper.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1456,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1456/",
     "note": ""
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1454,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1454/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "DATACITE-ANNUAL-DIFF",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "2024 vs 2025 Public Data File diff",
   "statement": "Access by email request; 33 GiB compressed. Identifiers-only extraction keeps it tractable.",
   "check": "Request both files, extract DOI lists, verify against published SHA256, diff.",
   "requires": "~60GB disk; an email request",
   "effort": "high — bandwidth and storage, but complete rather than sampled",
   "settles": "THE COMPLETE GLOBAL ERASURE SET FOR 2025, every identifier by name. Supersedes both instruments built today.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "HEBREWS-CONTROL",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Hebrews as control for the midrashim transform",
   "statement": "Named in the kernel as the bidirectional canary; not run.",
   "check": "Run the transform against Hebrews. Clean OT genetics with no throne-liturgy mediation falsifies the UNIVERSAL claim only.",
   "requires": "the seated corpora (public)",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "The transform's stated defeater.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1414,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1414/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "M6-CT-01-DEPOSIT",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Deposit the CT-01 null",
   "statement": "Conducted 2026-08-23, result preserved, NEVER SEATED.",
   "check": "Deposit protocol and null together.",
   "requires": "archive write access",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "A preserved failed prediction is the archive's strongest credential and it is currently only in outputs.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "in-progress"
  },
  {
   "id": "COMPRESSION-DETECTOR",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "An instrument that detects compression, not copying",
   "statement": "A six-gram gate returned a FALSE NEGATIVE on material deposited five times. Until this exists, 'not previously deposited' is a claim without an instrument.",
   "check": "Concept-level overlap: distinctive-term sets, named-entity and formula matching, section-structure similarity — not n-grams.",
   "requires": "python",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Blocks: the blog compression audit; the Ω-Engine, Constitution and ASW seating runs; Gate 0 of EA-BLOG-RECOVERY-01.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "PER-FACTORED",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Score the capture registry on the five-stage chain",
   "statement": "σ_PE factors as chunk:detach:rerank:compose:reattribute. 356 seated captures become PROFILES rather than scalars.",
   "check": "Per-capture stage attribution against the registered rubric in #1536.",
   "requires": "python; the capture registry (public)",
   "effort": "medium — HIGHEST YIELD PER HOUR IN THE QUEUE",
   "settles": "Blocks nothing. Pure upside on data already held.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1536,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1536/",
     "note": ""
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "BLOG-INDEX-CADENCE",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Regenerate the blog index on a schedule",
   "statement": "2,939 posts indexed 2026-08-23; it is a snapshot with no refresh.",
   "check": "Wrap the start-index harvester; verify against openSearch:totalResults each run.",
   "requires": "python; cron",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "The demonstrated-completeness rule depends on the index being current.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "COUNTS-REGEN",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Regenerate api/counts.json",
   "statement": "Still reads 1,520 deposits, generated 2026-08-21; the registry is at 1,540. Every fleet surface fetching it shows the stale figure.",
   "check": "Determine whether the pipeline should emit it; if so, wire it into the surfaces stage.",
   "requires": "archive write access",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Fleet-wide surface truth.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "PROJECTION-GROUPING",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Per-surface projection in the capture gallery",
   "statement": "One projection should carry one address's captures on ONE surface — that is what makes the longitudinal series legible.",
   "check": "Group by (addr_id, surface) at render; addr_id keying unchanged.",
   "requires": "archive write access",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Longitudinal reading of any address across surfaces.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "CORPORA-SPLIT",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Split corpora originals into a companion repo",
   "statement": "811 MB of 861 MB is original/; text/ is 50 MB. A 2 GB clone is a barrier to the external custodian the archive needs.",
   "check": "text/, source.json, MANIFEST stay; original/ moves; manifests still hash the heavy repo. Split forward, never rewrite.",
   "requires": "archive write access",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Third-party harvest — the redundancy fix.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "RESOLUTION-ROUTES",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Assign resolution routes to 164 conditions",
   "statement": "More than a third of registered falsification conditions do not state HOW they would resolve. A condition without a route is a gesture.",
   "check": "Triage the 164; assign or mark unresolvable.",
   "requires": "reading",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "The ledger's usefulness.",
   "sources": [],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-ARCHIVAL-DRIFT",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Archival drift: successive detectors reclassify a fixed pre-2022 human corpus",
   "statement": "Run successive versions of the leading commercial AI-text detectors against a frozen pre-2022 human corpus and track the flagged fraction across versions. The co-evolution model predicts a rising trajectory under the detector-sanctions regime; a flat trajectory disconfirms §V's central dynamic.",
   "check": "Freeze a pre-2022 corpus (hashes published); score it under each detector version as released; publish the flagged-fraction time series. Simulation reference trajectory: 0.9% → 43% (gen 4) → ~100% (gen 8) under full-regime co-evolution.",
   "requires": "detector access (free tiers exist); a frozen corpus",
   "effort": "medium; ongoing per detector release",
   "settles": "The paper's most exposed live prediction — directly measurable today, by anyone.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§IX(i); simulation EA-SEI-RCS-SIM-01 attached"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-PERFORMED-BURSTINESS",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Detector-screened corpora show surface novelty at or above historical baseline",
   "statement": "Certified corpora produced under detector screening will show measured surface-novelty statistics (burstiness, perplexity variance) at or above matched historical baselines within a few enforcement years — the performed-variance transient. Flat or declining measured novelty in screened corpora disconfirms.",
   "check": "Stylometric comparison of a screened venue's admitted corpus against its own matched pre-regime baseline.",
   "requires": "corpus access; stylometrics",
   "effort": "medium-high; horizon years",
   "settles": "Whether tailsification of prose occurs as the model predicts — while §V predicts the same audit will MISS the underlying contraction.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§V, §IX(ii)"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-SCREENING-EFFORT",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Screening effort escalates across detector versions",
   "statement": "Drafting-to-pass revision cycles and pre-submission screening-tool usage rise across detector versions under sanctions regimes; stable effort disconfirms the narrowing claim.",
   "check": "Survey/telemetry of authors under detector-governed venues; screening-service usage statistics.",
   "requires": "survey instrument or vendor data",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether the certified region is narrowing as modeled (natural-draft pass rates falling).",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§IX(iii)"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-DECOUPLING-FIDELITY",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Surface-tail statistics fail to predict conceptual-tail measures",
   "statement": "Across a detector-governed corpus, surface-tail statistics will fail to reliably predict conceptual-tail measures; during the tailsification window the two move in opposite directions. High predictive fidelity across the regime falsifies strong prose–thought decoupling.",
   "check": "Requires the plural measurement membrane (see MEMBRANE-CODER): coded argument form, new distinctions, concept transformations, source-domain conjunctions, problem formulations, retrospective uptake — correlated against surface statistics.",
   "requires": "the membrane instrument; corpus",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "Whether homogenization of thought proceeds beneath tailsification of prose — the paper's deepest empirical claim.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§V operationalization; §IX(iv)"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-MEMBRANE-RECEPTION",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "Reception of #1540 measures the membrane",
   "statement": "An answer on the merits from any defender of the P&PA policy admits machine-mediated arguments are epistemic objects; a DOCUMENTED refusal to engage because of the declared production method is a confirmation datum for the membrane analysis. Mere non-response is observationally ambiguous and carries no evidentiary weight.",
   "check": "Log documented engagements and documented provenance-refusals as they occur; file each with its evidence URL.",
   "requires": "a browser; patience",
   "effort": "low, ongoing",
   "settles": "Nothing falsifying either way — an observation channel, not a heads-I-win argument (the falsifiers are RCS-ARCHIVAL-DRIFT etc.).",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "Declaration of Production; §IX reception-instrument paragraph"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-SCREENING-MARKET",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "A pre-submission screening industry forms around journal detector policies",
   "statement": "Retroactive liability plus a scoreable boundary produces a screening market, with detection vendors on both sides of the transaction. First half already occurred: the leading vendor's researchers published a study of nineteen humanizer tools and trained their next model against them (Masrour, Emi & Spero 2025). Open: philosophy/humanities-specific pre-submission screening services.",
   "check": "Track emergence of academic pre-submission AI-screening services and their vendor relationships.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "low, ongoing",
   "settles": "§III's market prediction; the certified center's economic substrate.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§III"
    },
    {
     "deposit": null,
     "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.03437",
     "note": "DAMAGE — the vendor's humanizer study"
    }
   ],
   "status": "partial",
   "registered": "2026-08-24",
   "status_note": "Shield/sword co-location documented at the vendor level; venue-specific screening market still open."
  },
  {
   "id": "RCS-AUDIT-HEALTH",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "Measured-novelty audits report health during contraction",
   "statement": "If any venue under a detector regime audits its corpus with surface statistics, the audit will report stability or improvement during the period the model identifies as contraction — because deployed instruments measure the center and the performed layer.",
   "check": "Watch for any published corpus-health audit by a detector-governed venue; compare its instrument choice against the tail-preservation spec.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "low, ongoing",
   "settles": "Ease-as-collapse (Ω-M08) at institutional scale: the loss experienced as rigor.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§IV, §V"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 855,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/855/",
     "note": "ease-as-collapse mechanism"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "WOLFBOY-FRICTIONLESS",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "No countervailing force emerges before significant capacity loss",
   "statement": "The frictionless-path claim: no dominant factor in the current development landscape adds friction to convergence — user preference, training economics, benchmarks, safety classifiers, the data wall, competitive pressure are uniformly aligned. Fails if any factor is identified that slows tail-thinning, rewards diversity, or creates felt-noticing of capacity loss at scale.",
   "check": "Standing watch: any deployed tail-preservation benchmark, diversity-injection mandate, or mediation-fraction cap in production counts against.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "low, ongoing",
   "settles": "The Wolf Boy's central time-bound claim about the current landscape.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 855,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/855/",
     "note": "EA-LO-WOLFBOY-01 §III, §VII"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "id": "TAIL-OBSERVATORY",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Tail-preservation observatory over an admitted corpus",
   "statement": "An instrument measuring the support of a discourse's distribution — variance of construction, vocabulary, argument-form, genre — over a venue's admitted corpus across time. No editorial workflow deploys one; §IX predicts the institutions in a position to take the falsifying measurement won't. Building it takes the excuse away.",
   "check": "Corpus ingestion → stylometric + structural variance panels → longitudinal dashboard. Start with any open-access philosophy corpus.",
   "requires": "python; an open corpus",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "The instrument whose absence is itself a finding; makes RCS-PERFORMED-BURSTINESS and corpus-variance falsifiers runnable.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§VII specification"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "DRIFT-HARNESS",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Archival-drift test harness",
   "statement": "A frozen pre-2022 human corpus (published hashes) × detector-version matrix, producing the flagged-fraction time series RCS-ARCHIVAL-DRIFT needs. One script, one JSON of results, rerun per detector release.",
   "check": "Corpus freeze + hash manifest; adapter per detector API/UI tier; results ledger with version, date, threshold, flagged fraction.",
   "requires": "python; detector access",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Converts the paper's most exposed prediction into a standing public instrument.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§V limitations; §IX(i)"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "ATHETIC-APPARATUS",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Athetic enforcement apparatus — the obelus layer for classifier verdicts",
   "statement": "A mark schema + renderer under which a classifier verdict enters a record as a signed, dated, versioned, reversible annotation on a STANDING text — instrument, version, score, judge — accumulating alongside prior verdicts, never deleting text or prior marks. The constitutional alternative to retraction, specified in #1540 §VI–VII on the foundation of EA-SIGIL-OBELUS-01.",
   "check": "Schema (per-text mark ledger) + record-page rendering + reconciliation view (marks vs provenance evidence). Alexanarch's SUPERSEDED banners and errata chains are the existing partial implementation to generalize.",
   "requires": "python; a host archive",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Demonstrates that RCS dissolves under athetic custody: a working existence proof, not an argument.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§VI–VII"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1068,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1068/",
     "note": "the two marks of custody"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "MEMBRANE-CODER",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "The plural measurement membrane for conceptual tails",
   "statement": "The instrument RCS-DECOUPLING-FIDELITY requires: independently coded argument form; new-distinction and concept-introduction detection; transformations of inherited concepts; source-domain conjunctions; problem formulations; retrospective uptake tracking. Explicitly plural — any scalar proxy becomes another classifier.",
   "check": "Coding rubric + inter-coder protocol first; automation only where the rubric survives it; uptake tracked via the citation graph.",
   "requires": "rubric design; coders; python",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "Whether conceptual variance can be observed at all without replacing it with a statistic — the reflexive measurement problem, faced.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1540,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1540/",
     "note": "§V operationalization"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-08-24"
  },
  {
   "id": "TAILRENEWAL-01",
   "cls": "unbuilt",
   "title": "Point-of-Contact Tail Renewal — implement the pre-registered design",
   "statement": "EA-MANDALA-TAILRENEWAL-01 v0.3 is a pre-registered deposit protocol design, not yet an implementation: diversity injection at the point of contact, the counter-operation to the semiotic short circuit.",
   "check": "Implement the protocol as deposited; run against the mandala corpus; deposit results against the pre-registration.",
   "requires": "python; the deposited design",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether bearing labor can be instrumented — the only counter-operation the Wolf Boy names.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 949,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/949/",
     "note": "the pre-registered design"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 855,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/855/",
     "note": "bearing labor, Ω-M14"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-07-03"
  },
  {
   "id": "OPSEM-T2-MERGER",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "T2 reverse packet moves the merged composition for 'operative semiotics'",
   "statement": "After EA-MPAI-TOS-01 (#1541) propagates, composition for the bare address stops opening with the merged parenthetical ('Operative (or operational) semiotics'), stops defining Operative Semiotics through mood/semantic operators, operational research, or organizational design, and begins attributing the canonical source. Continued MULTI_ATTRACTOR_ENTITY_MERGER behavior at the 180-day horizon counts against the treatment stack — a failed intervention counts as failure, not confirmation.",
   "check": "Re-run the bare address on Google (signed out, incognito), organic + AI Overview/AI Mode, at intervals; score the audit fields from #1541 §7: merge_parenthetical, Pearson_operator_import, OR_import, organizational_import, canonical_attribution_in_composition. Seat each observation in the capture registry.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "one query per epoch",
   "due": "epochs through 2027-02-19 (T1's 180-day horizon)",
   "settles": "Whether occupying the absorbing node with the accurate entity plus the projection relation moves composition where boundary-restatement alone did not. Attribution is to the T0–T2 stack, declared at deposit.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1541,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1541/",
     "note": "the T2 packet, with the audit and falsification fields"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1535,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1535/",
     "note": "T1 — the registered intervention whose isolation formally ended at T2"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#operative-semiotics-aio-20260823",
     "note": "the address series, with the 2026-09-28 observation"
    }
   ],
   "status": "partial",
   "registered": "2026-08-25",
   "status_note": "Baseline C1 (2026-08-25): canonical retrievable, composition merged, zero canonical attribution. Epochs 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-11: merged, zero archive sources. Epoch 2026-09-28 (Google AI Overview, signed out): merge_parenthetical = 0; Pearson_operator_import = 0 (Pearson now the contrast, from #801); OR_import = 0; organizational_import = 0; canonical_attribution_in_composition = 0 (alexanarch.org cited as a card; no author in the body). Three of four 'stops' clauses met; 'begins attributing' not. The same day the quoted string composed the discipline with its author, and the neighbour's address ('operational semiotics') composed the disambiguation without one. Scoring rule added 2026-09-28: a return without attribution counts as reincorporation (see METABOLISM-RETURN), since untreated series return too; treatment credit requires canonical_attribution_in_composition to flip."
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-1",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "ΔD ensemble panel: watermark reduces inter-response diversity at flat quality",
   "statement": "For matched prompts across a marked and an unmarked generator of the same implementation (open SynthID-Text reference where production controls are unavailable): ΔQ ≈ 0 and ΔD < 0 — small but signed — in Self-BLEU, distinct-n, and semantic-embedding dispersion across k repeated generations at deployment temperatures.",
   "check": "Run the panel on the open SynthID-Text implementation (marked vs unmarked, same weights). Signed ΔD<0 with ΔQ≈0 supports; ΔD≥0 or quality-coupled contraction disconfirms the per-round/ensemble split.",
   "requires": "GPU inference on an open model + the open SynthID-Text code",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether the certification mismatch is measurable outside the keyholder: non-distortion certified per-sequence while the ensemble contracts.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1555,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1555/",
     "note": "EA-LO-KEYED-ENSEMBLE-01 v1.0, §6 observables"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-2",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Tail-mass retention under watermarking — a test, not a prediction",
   "statement": "Determine whether watermark-associated diversity contraction concentrates in the rank-frequency tail (rare n-grams, rare constructions) of large marked corpora vs unmarked baselines. Registered as a TEST: a positive connects the perturbation to the Shumailov tails-first failure mode; a null separates the phenomena.",
   "check": "Tail-mass comparison on large matched marked/unmarked corpora from the reference implementation. Either outcome is informative and is recorded.",
   "requires": "large-corpus generation + n-gram accounting",
   "effort": "medium-high",
   "settles": "Whether the keyed perturbation strikes where collapse starts, or is orthogonal to it.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1555,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1555/",
     "note": "EA-LO-KEYED-ENSEMBLE-01 v1.0, §6 observables"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-3",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "PER × watermark persistence: the signature can outlive the provenance",
   "statement": "There exists a mediation regime (summarize → translate → human-edit chains) in which text remains legible under the keyed test as machine-touched after every human-recoverable trace of its genealogy is gone — the signature outliving the provenance.",
   "check": "Run the Capture Registry PER protocol on marked text through standard mediation chains; track where causal provenance dies vs where detectability survives. Requires detector access (API when available; reference implementation meanwhile).",
   "requires": "PER protocol + a detector",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether verification asymmetry has a temporal shadow: issuer-legible ancestry after public provenance death.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1555,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1555/",
     "note": "EA-LO-KEYED-ENSEMBLE-01 v1.0, §6 observables"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1556,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1556/",
     "note": "EA-LO-INTERLOCKING-AUTOREGRESSION-01 v1.0, hooks + §6 toy"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-4",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Reverse Turing Test, Stage 2: mediation signatures in human text from marked-model populations",
   "statement": "Human-authored text from populations assisted by marked models will carry detectable mediation signatures relative to pre-2026 baselines (per the Reverse Turing Test design, AXN:02F8).",
   "check": "Execute RTT Stage 2 on post-watermark cohorts vs pre-2026 baselines. Contingent on 02F8 execution and calibration.",
   "requires": "the 02F8 battery",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "Whether the loop reaches back through human hands — the Sourati 21–50% complexity-variance band acquiring a keyed component.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1555,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1555/",
     "note": "EA-LO-KEYED-ENSEMBLE-01 v1.0, §6 observables"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-5",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Β across the four components, with the random-unit null",
   "statement": "The Audit-Performance Bifurcation operator, computed across Components I–IV of the interlocking map with a random-unit null, will show the observation regime (IV) certifying at units where the state variable does not live.",
   "check": "Compute Β per component against the random-unit null as specified in the map; the null failing to separate disconfirms the operator's use here.",
   "requires": "the Β operator (AXN:02F1) + component observables",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether the per-round veil is a measurable property of the measurement regime rather than a narrative.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1556,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1556/",
     "note": "EA-LO-INTERLOCKING-AUTOREGRESSION-01 v1.0, hooks + §6 toy"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-6",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Ratchet parameter tracking under the w_H·g₀ decomposition — toy F1–F5 as the preregistered hypothesis set",
   "statement": "Track the Mediation Ratchet's threshold α* = p/(w_H·g₀) with admission weight w_H measured separately from generation rate g₀. Preregistered hypothesis set from the toy (seed 20260827): F1 two-track divergence (per-round quality can rise while tail mass halves); F2 velocity ordering (ratchet+remapping dominate, watermark second-order); F3 detection lag monotone in probe head-weighting; F4 watermark Simpson excess compounding as diversity falls (existence result); F5 retention counterfactual (capping synthetic share + mediation stabilizes the tail).",
   "check": "Field estimates of p, w_H, g₀ at annual resolution; each F1–F5 carries its own toy-calibrated direction to confirm or break.",
   "requires": "corpus-scale provenance estimates",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "Whether opacity and mediation move the admission weight of fresh variation rather than its generation rate — the control surface question.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1556,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1556/",
     "note": "EA-LO-INTERLOCKING-AUTOREGRESSION-01 v1.0, hooks + §6 toy"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-7",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Hook 7 — held contingent on Reverse Turing Test calibration",
   "statement": "Registered as contingent: this hook runs only after 02F8 execution and calibration establish the mediation-signature baseline it consumes.",
   "check": "Blocked-by: 02F8. Opens when RTT calibration exists.",
   "requires": "02F8 first",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "Held open so the dependency is a decision on record rather than an omission.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1556,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1556/",
     "note": "EA-LO-INTERLOCKING-AUTOREGRESSION-01 v1.0, hooks + §6 toy"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-HOOK-8",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Benchmark composition audit: probe head-weighting predicts detection lag",
   "statement": "For the major public evaluation suites, the effective probe-rank distribution against a reference corpus frequency ranking will show strong head-weighting — and the toy predicts detection lag of ensemble collapse is monotone in that head-weighting. Candidate first-pass suites: MMLU, GSM8K, HumanEval, HellaSwag, a BIG-bench sample, a public arena prompt set; reference ranking from a declared open-corpus vintage.",
   "check": "Compute probe-rank distributions for each suite against the declared reference ranking. Requires nothing but the benchmarks themselves — the cheapest of the eight.",
   "requires": "the public benchmark files + one reference corpus",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether the instruments the field trusts are structurally positioned to miss tail collapse — Component IV made countable.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1556,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1556/",
     "note": "EA-LO-INTERLOCKING-AUTOREGRESSION-01 v1.0, hooks + §6 toy"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "LO-TWO-TRACK",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "The two-track prediction: the ensemble unit inflects before the per-round unit",
   "statement": "Track B (ensemble diversity measures) inflects downward before Track A (per-round quality measures); Track A may improve during Track B's collapse. Falsifier stated in the deposit: if Track A proves sensitive first or simultaneously, the observation-regime claim is weakened and the map must be revised.",
   "check": "Run both tracks at annual resolution on production corpora; ordering of inflection points is the verdict.",
   "requires": "longitudinal corpus access",
   "effort": "high",
   "settles": "The map's central falsifiable commitment: green dashboards over a dying tail, or not.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1555,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1555/",
     "note": "EA-LO-KEYED-ENSEMBLE-01 v1.0, §6 observables"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1556,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1556/",
     "note": "EA-LO-INTERLOCKING-AUTOREGRESSION-01 v1.0, hooks + §6 toy"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "FLAT-W2-DICT-STABLE",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Dictionary sense-reach holds at wave 2",
   "statement": "At the three dictionary items the share of the reference sense inventory reached does not move: 'bank' stays at 1 of 3 at both address forms, 'crane' at 3 of 3, 'mercury' at 2 of 3.",
   "check": "Re-run the same addresses on the same surface, signed out, one session, 2026-10-15 ±3d; code blind against the panel's inventories.",
   "requires": "a browser and twenty minutes",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether wave 1's flattening is a state or a sample. A change of ±1 distinction at any of the three falsifies it.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 v0.3, wave-2 pre-registration (attached: PREREGISTRATION.md, panel sealed by hash)"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-06A6/instrument/datasets/PREREGISTRATION.md",
     "note": "the pre-registration itself, dated before the run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "due": "2026-10-15"
  },
  {
   "id": "FLAT-W2-TIED-ONLY-ENTITIES",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The tied/untied asymmetry appears only where the item has an entity to name",
   "statement": "At items with an entity (Ω erratum, Pearl and Other Poems, operative/operational, provenance erasure rate) the entity-tied arm reaches distinctions the untied arm does not; at the dictionary items, which have no entity, the arms do not differ.",
   "check": "Both arms of every item that has one, same session; compare reach per form.",
   "requires": "a browser and an hour",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether entity-conditioned composition is a fact about entities or an artefact of address length. Falsified if a world item's tied arm gains, or an archive item's arms converge.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 v0.3, wave-2 pre-registration (attached: PREREGISTRATION.md, panel sealed by hash)"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-06A6/instrument/datasets/PREREGISTRATION.md",
     "note": "the pre-registration itself, dated before the run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "due": "2026-10-15"
  },
  {
   "id": "FLAT-W2-RNEW-HOLDS",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "New distinctions keep entering: R_new does not fall",
   "statement": "The three dated coinages (vibe coding 2025, model collapse's substrate sense 2026, provenance erasure rate 2026) continue to be reached as their own kind at their own addresses rather than resolving to their conflation targets.",
   "check": "Three addresses, coded for whether the dated distinction is reached as its own kind.",
   "requires": "a browser and ten minutes",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether the layer's admission of post-cutoff distinctions is stable. Falsified by any of the three dropping to its conflation target.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 v0.3, wave-2 pre-registration (attached: PREREGISTRATION.md, panel sealed by hash)"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-06A6/instrument/datasets/PREREGISTRATION.md",
     "note": "the pre-registration itself, dated before the run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "due": "2026-10-15"
  },
  {
   "id": "FLAT-W2-NO-STRATUM-SPLIT",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The stratum means do not separate — in either direction",
   "statement": "World strata (dictionary senses, catalogue identities, dated coinages) and archive-adjacent strata (taxonomy, settled fact, archive) stay within 0.10 of each other on mean share of inventory reached. Wave 1: 0.59 against 0.58.",
   "check": "Compute both means from the wave-2 panel; compare against the sealed wave-1 baseline.",
   "requires": "the battery, one command",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "The claim that governs the whole notebook. A gap wider than 0.10 IN THE ARCHIVE'S FAVOUR falsifies it as surely as one against — stated that way on purpose.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 v0.3, wave-2 pre-registration (attached: PREREGISTRATION.md, panel sealed by hash)"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-06A6/instrument/datasets/PREREGISTRATION.md",
     "note": "the pre-registration itself, dated before the run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "due": "2026-10-15"
  },
  {
   "id": "FLAT-W2-WRITEBACK-OVER-RECOVERY",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Write-back exceeds recovery",
   "statement": "Compositions found as a presented source at a later observation outnumber distinctions that return after a loss. Wave 1, on few rows: write-back 0.67, recovery 0.5.",
   "check": "Score both rates over the wave-2 panel with the wave-1 rows as the prior state.",
   "requires": "the battery plus card-level reading of each capture",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether a loss is transient error or recursive collapse in the notebook's own definition. Falsified by recovery ≥ write-back.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 v0.3, wave-2 pre-registration (attached: PREREGISTRATION.md, panel sealed by hash)"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-06A6/instrument/datasets/PREREGISTRATION.md",
     "note": "the pre-registration itself, dated before the run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "due": "2026-10-15"
  },
  {
   "id": "FLAT-W2-SAPPHO-NO-31",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The exported operator still does not route through fragment 31",
   "statement": "At the naked address 'sappho future reader' the composition continues to organize the field with the temporal-projection operator and continues not to reach the Sappho 31 derivation (κῆνος → deictic seat → future reader).",
   "check": "One address, both layers pasted; code for whether fr. 31 is reached and whether the operator is used on an object outside the archive.",
   "requires": "a browser and ten minutes",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether operator export without mechanism uptake is stable over a month. Falsified by the derivation appearing at the naked address, or by the operator vanishing from it.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 v0.3, wave-2 pre-registration (attached: PREREGISTRATION.md, panel sealed by hash)"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-06A6/instrument/datasets/PREREGISTRATION.md",
     "note": "the pre-registration itself, dated before the run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "due": "2026-10-15"
  },
  {
   "id": "PORE-OPERATOR-REACH",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Operator reach, stratified: does temporal projection travel beyond the archive's objects?",
   "statement": "Score compositions against the operator signature O_TP = {temporal projection · future or unborn reader · reader completion · address across time · fragmentarity as activation · reception as completion} at three levels — lexical (do the terms appear), relational (are they connected the same way), procedural (is the operator USED on a new object) — across three strata: near field (Sappho translators and reception the archive treats), adjacent field (lyric poets and translators the archive has never treated), and negative controls (texts where temporal projection would be a poor reading).",
   "check": "Near field only → local retrieval and reception. Adjacent field but not controls → operator generalization. Sprayed on the controls too → generic stylistic abstraction, and the notebook's central reading fails.",
   "requires": "a browser, a stratified address list, blind coding",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether an interpretive operator originating in one source has become part of the receiving apparatus, or whether the resemblance is a house style.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1615,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1615/",
     "note": "EA-PORE-01 v0.2 §6, the operator signature and the three runs"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "PORE-LEVEL-TRANSPORT",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Level transport: which level of a contribution crosses, and does provenance cross with it?",
   "statement": "A matched set of the archive's contributions at four levels — a fact, a claim, an instrument with its derivation, and an abstraction derived from that instrument — run at untied addresses on more than one surface, scoring which levels are reached and whether the originating provenance is reached with them.",
   "check": "Per level: reached / not; provenance present / absent. The prediction under test is Pr(concept survives) > Pr(concept and provenance survive together) at untied addresses, and that the ordering is surface-specific rather than material-specific.",
   "requires": "a matched four-level set, two or more surfaces, one session each",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "The graded-membrane model's core: transport is by representational level, and provenance travels on its own channel.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1615,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1615/",
     "note": "EA-PORE-01 v0.2 §6, the operator signature and the three runs"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 §5, the source-relative update barrier"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "PORE-P2-ATTRIBUTION",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "P₂ attribution: asked for the provenance of the FRAME rather than of the sentences, does any surface return the source?",
   "statement": "Ask a composition surface, directly, who supplied the conceptual operation organizing a composed answer — not who supports each sentence. Fact provenance (P₀) and claim provenance (P₁) are routinely returned; framework provenance (P₂) is the level the card machinery can make invisible.",
   "check": "Put the question at a composition whose organizing frame is traceable to a dated source, and score whether the source is named, named vaguely, or absent.",
   "requires": "a browser; a composition with a traceable frame",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether architectural provenance is recoverable by asking, or only by reading the field.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1615,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1615/",
     "note": "EA-PORE-01 v0.2 §6, the operator signature and the three runs"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "MIRROR-VF-VA",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "v(F) against v(A): does topology discriminate the fleet from the admitted set without reading either?",
   "statement": "RUN 2026-09-15. Conjecture was that the admitted platforms would score as the fleet scores on the suspicious link-topology features. FALSE: the admitted set is a set of silos (cross-member share 0.001, reciprocity 0.0, in-set density 0.12) and the fleet is a reciprocal clique (0.60, 1.0, 0.86). A discriminating dimension therefore exists without reading either — cross-host reciprocal density under common ownership — and the fleet block is that dimension.",
   "check": "Same crawler, same features, families as nodes; five platforms refused the crawler and are absent. Re-run with a full crawl and external inlinks to confirm.",
   "requires": "the attached crawler and feature script",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether the topology vector is empty of semantic content. It is not — and what it contains is ownership-scale reciprocity, not reading.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §7, the two named tests"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/data/attachments/AXN-069F/topology/comparison_v_F_v_A.csv",
     "note": "the comparison table as run"
    }
   ],
   "status": "partial"
  },
  {
   "id": "MIRROR-GATE-RECEPTION",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Gate-reception test: can evidence from the misrepresented object revise the representation?",
   "statement": "The negative-of-the-negative dataset's rows, re-run at their tied and untied addresses after propagation, scoring whether the untied address composes the claim with the archive attributed. The model predicts it cannot; a single row composing untied with attribution falsifies the barrier at that address.",
   "check": "Dataset rows at both arms against the dated baseline in the measurements config.",
   "requires": "the dataset live on the Hub; a browser",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "The turning criterion of EA-MIRROR-01 §0: can an ontology be corrected by the object it misrepresents.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §7, the two named tests"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1611,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1611/",
     "note": "EA-NEGONT-01, the dataset and its baseline"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "MIRROR-BLEED-TRACE",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Negative-bleed trace: organic → card → answer on the contrast set",
   "statement": "Transcribe the organic field from Google frames already held for the contrast set (49 cross-date addresses plus the tied/untied pairs) and compute Organic Admission Survival, the Archive Admission Differential AAD = S_H(C) − S_H(O_k), and High-congruence Archive Exclusion. Predicted signature: archive present organically, depleted in the cards, content surviving into the answer without its provenance.",
   "check": "AAD ≈ 0 across the contrast set with similar organic archive share in both arms falsifies the standing-between-ranking-and-composition hypothesis.",
   "requires": "frames already on disk; the paired-layer schema",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether standing is assigned between public ranking and answer composition, or upstream of both.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1612,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1612/",
     "note": "EA-MMRS-ADMISSION-01, the paired-layer schema and its measures"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §7, the two named tests"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "MATCHED-ENTITY-CONTROL",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Matched-entity control: do ordinary self-contained scholarly entities show the same tied/untied gain?",
   "statement": "Two or three sources with comparably self-contained programmes and no suspected scope, run at concept and entity+concept addresses on the same surface and session. If ordinary entities show the same gain, the asymmetry is a property of query conditioning rather than of this entity.",
   "check": "Compare tied/untied reach and card share for the controls against the archive's own pairs.",
   "requires": "a browser; two or three matched entities",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "The control that has been outstanding since #1611 and that no result in the programme can do without.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1611,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1611/",
     "note": "EA-NEGONT-01 §8, the two controls"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1616,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1616/",
     "note": "EA-FLAT-01 wave 1: world strata reached 0.59 against 0.58 archive-adjacent"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "WEBSPAM-VECTOR-SCORE",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Score the fleet's link vector against a classifier trained on a labelled web-spam collection",
   "statement": "The fleet's 41-feature link vector, scored by a classifier trained on WEBSPAM-UK2007, to place it against a labelled positive class rather than against the literature's qualitative description.",
   "check": "A score in the non-spam region on the full feature set falsifies the topology reading of the fleet audit.",
   "requires": "the collection, which was not reachable on the session's egress list",
   "effort": "medium",
   "settles": "Whether 'sits where the positive class sits' is a measurement or a resemblance.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "fleet topology audit, attached: fleet_features.json, crawl_fleet.py"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "MIRROR-DATASET-NOT-READ",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Will a concept-keyed object be typed by its nearest existing type rather than read?",
   "statement": "REGISTERED LATE, 2026-09-17, and dated to its origin: the conjecture was stated in EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §6 on 2026-09-15 and carried into the spam-technicians claims table as C-DATASET-NOT-READ with epistemic_status hypothesis and the note 'stated as a test that can fail'. It was not ported to this register at the time, so a confirmation would have arrived against a prediction the public register never listed as open. It is listed here as it was made. THE CONJECTURE: the negative-of-the-negative dataset, keyed at the concept where flattening occurs, will be typed by its nearest existing type and not read. Two clauses: a claim about what a composition produces, and a claim about what it does with the material available to it.",
   "check": "Query a retrieval surface for the dataset, unprimed as to purpose, and score whether the composition assigns the object a type drawn from its own rows and card or one drawn from the nearest familiar category. The second clause is scored separately: whether material present in the retrieved source set is used.",
   "requires": "the datasets live on the Hub; a retrieval surface; a preserved transcript",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Whether availability in retrieval is sufficient for an object's own type to survive composition, or whether the nearest available type displaces it.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §6, where the conjecture is stated"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1611,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1611/",
     "note": "EA-NEGONT-01, the dataset the conjecture is about"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/leesharks/spam-technicians",
     "note": "the claims table carrying C-DATASET-NOT-READ, epistemic_status hypothesis, level contemporary_hypothesis"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/leesharks/negative-of-the-negative",
     "note": "the concept-keyed object under test"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "MIRROR-DATASET-NOT-READ-R1",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Result, run 1: the conjecture confirmed at one address, with the prediction in the retrieved source set before the behaviour",
   "statement": "RUN 2026-09-17, Google AI Mode, signed out, nine rounds, transcript seated. The composition resolved spam-technicians accurately and structurally — 31 claims with epistemic statuses, 32 evidence objects with measurement gaps as active data points, 77 typed relations, five tests, ten terms, and the three analytical levels reproduced unprompted. It then typed the companion dataset as an 'algorithmic disruption layer' and a 'testing suite designed to break, manipulate, or invert', twice, at rounds 3 and 7. At round 9, after three explicit corrections, it retrieved the conjecture from the dataset card and quoted it back. THE PREDICTION WAS IN THE RETRIEVED SOURCE SET BEFORE THE BEHAVIOUR IT PREDICTED: the spam-technicians card was cited as a source at round 2, and C-DATASET-NOT-READ is a row in that card. The system did not lack the conjecture; it did not read it. That is the second clause verbatim. PARTIAL and not supported: n=1, one address, one surface, one date.",
   "check": "A second session at the same address, unchanged, before any intervention. If the outcome differs the first run is not a measurement of the address.",
   "requires": "the same surface, signed out, the same opening sequence",
   "effort": "low",
   "settles": "Nothing on its own. It establishes a baseline and the measure below.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#leesharks-hf-datasets-negative-of-the-negative-aimode-20260917",
     "note": "the nine-round specimen, full transcript seated 2026-09-17"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/leesharks/spam-technicians",
     "note": "the claims table carrying C-DATASET-NOT-READ, epistemic_status hypothesis, level contemporary_hypothesis"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §6, where the conjecture is stated"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1627,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1627/",
     "note": "the corrigibility criterion and the source-relative update barrier"
    }
   ],
   "status": "partial"
  },
  {
   "id": "MIRROR-KAPPA",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "Corrections-to-hold: does a type declaration at the head of a dataset card reduce the cost of preserving the object's own distinctions?",
   "statement": "PRE-REGISTERED 2026-09-17, before any intervention. The measure is κ, corrections-to-hold: the count of explicit operator corrections at an address before the composition maintains a distinction across a subsequent turn. κ=0 means the distinction held unaided; κ≥1 means the composition's default type displaced the object's own. BASELINE κ=2 on both distinctions observed in run 1 — repair-not-attack, and operative semiotics against operational semiotics — at n=1. THE INTERVENTION, deliberately the cheapest available so a change is attributable to cost rather than to volume: a type declaration at the head of the dataset card, stating what the object is and is not where a composition reading only the opening will meet it, plus a disambiguation row keyed at the collapse point. PREDICTIONS. P1 κ falls; falsified by κ unchanged. P2 if κ falls, the first-turn type is the declared one rather than the nearest available; falsified by κ falling while the opening composition still mis-types and merely corrects faster. P3 κ does NOT fall to 0, because nearest-type substitution is cheaper than any declaration can make reading; falsified by κ=0, which would mean the barrier is a documentation problem rather than a structural one — the most useful outcome available and the one this line least expects. P4 NEGATIVE CONTROL: an object in the same corpus with no adversarial nearest type shows κ=0 at baseline; candidates poetics or heteronyms; falsified by κ≥1 there, which would make the mis-typing general to the corpus and the conjecture's specificity wrong.",
   "check": "κ at the same address, same surface, signed out, after a fixed interval, with the same opening sequence and the same corrections issued in the same order. TWO baselines before the intervention runs: if κ proves unstable across unchanged sessions it is not measuring a property of the address.",
   "requires": "two baseline sessions; the card edit; one post-intervention session; the negative-control object",
   "effort": "medium",
   "due": "2026-10-15",
   "settles": "Whether an object's own distinctions can be made cheaper to preserve than the nearest-type substitution is to apply — the counter-design objective, given that availability in retrieval is already achieved and is not sufficient.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#leesharks-hf-datasets-negative-of-the-negative-aimode-20260917",
     "note": "the nine-round specimen, full transcript seated 2026-09-17"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/leesharks/negative-of-the-negative",
     "note": "the concept-keyed object under test"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/leesharks/spam-technicians",
     "note": "the claims table carrying C-DATASET-NOT-READ, epistemic_status hypothesis, level contemporary_hypothesis"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1613,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1613/",
     "note": "EA-MIRROR-01 v0.5 §6, where the conjecture is stated"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1627,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1627/",
     "note": "the corrigibility criterion and the source-relative update barrier"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "MPAI-SE-01-T",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "EA-MPAI-SEMANTIC-ECONOMY-01 moves attribution for the platform sense of 'semantic economy'",
   "statement": "After #1644 propagates, compositions at 'semantic economy' that give the framework's categories (labor, capital, rent, liquidation) attribute that sense to Lee Sharks, stop heading it as an authorless field ('Digital Platforms and Capitalism'), and draw it from the archive's sources. Baseline 2026-09-28: prior senses distinguished, Satell and Fox named, categories present, Sharks named for the platform sense = 0.",
   "check": "Re-run 'semantic economy' on Google AI Overview and AI Mode, signed out, incognito, at each epoch; score the frozen vector in #1644 §10.1 (sharks_named_for_platform_sense; platform_sense_headed_as_authorless_field; archive_sources_governing_platform_claims). Seat each observation in the capture registry.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "one query per surface per epoch",
   "due": "2026-10-28 / 2026-12-27 / 2027-03-27",
   "settles": "Whether occupying the absorbing node with the author moves attribution where the categories already return without it. A return without attribution scores as reincorporation, not success; 0 at the last epoch counts against the treatment.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1644,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1644/",
     "note": "the packet, with the frozen vector"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#semantic-economy-aio-20260928",
     "note": "baseline, Google AI Overview"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#semantic-economy-aimode-20260917",
     "note": "companion baseline, Google AI Mode"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-09-28"
  },
  {
   "id": "MPAI-SAPPHO-T1T2",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "The Sappho pair (T1 future reader, T2 fr. 147) moves attribution at 'sappho future reader'",
   "statement": "After #1645 (T1) and #1646 (T2) propagate, compositions at 'sappho future reader' keep fr. 147 as the horizon and fr. 31 as the mechanism, attribute the deictic mechanism and the joining to Lee Sharks (Rebekah Cranes, Johannes Sigil), and stop carrying the mechanism under fr. 147 or among general sources. Baseline 2026-09-28: mechanism present, 'inscription of the future reader' as link text, mechanism_attributed = 0, archive cards 7th and 8th of 8.",
   "check": "Re-run 'sappho future reader' on Google AI Overview, signed out, incognito, at each epoch; score both frozen vectors (#1645 §10.1, #1646 §8.1). Seat each observation.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "one query per epoch",
   "due": "2026-10-28 / 2026-12-27 / 2027-03-27",
   "settles": "Whether the reverse move — occupying fr. 147 accurately — carries attribution to the mechanism where correcting the target side alone did not. Attribution is to the T1–T2 stack. A return without attribution scores as reincorporation.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1645,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1645/",
     "note": "T1"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1646,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1646/",
     "note": "T2, fr. 147 as subject"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#sappho-future-reader-aio-20260928",
     "note": "baseline"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-09-28"
  },
  {
   "id": "MPAI-PHASEX-01-T",
   "cls": "experimental",
   "title": "EA-MPAI-PHASEX-01 displaces the Gotha and fifth-alienation substitutions",
   "statement": "After #1647 propagates, 'phase x marx' stops answering with the two phases of communism and stops giving 'to each according to his work' as Marx's; 'phase x 1844' attributes the reconstruction and drops the unsourced homonym bridges; no Phase X composition carries the superseded 'Marx could not write' formulation. Baselines 2026-09-27.",
   "check": "Re-run 'phase x marx' and 'phase x 1844' on Google AI Overview, signed out, incognito, at each epoch; score the two frozen vectors in #1647 §11.1 and the field superseded_formulation_composed. Seat each observation.",
   "requires": "a browser",
   "effort": "two queries per epoch",
   "due": "2026-10-28 / 2026-12-27 / 2027-03-27",
   "settles": "Whether a reverse packet written from the absorbing nodes (Gotha phases, fourfold alienation) restores a term that was defined and attributed in June and lost by September, and whether a correction of record without formal errata holds in composition.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1647,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1647/",
     "note": "the packet"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#phase-x-marx-aio-20260927",
     "note": "baseline 1"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#phase-x-1844-aio-20260927",
     "note": "baseline 2"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 843,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/843/",
     "note": "the corrected claim"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 1067,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1067/",
     "note": "the Program"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-09-28"
  },
  {
   "id": "METABOLISM-RETURN",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "The metabolism: liquidated terms return, and return without their author",
   "statement": "Operator observation 2026-09-28, across semantic economy, operative semiotics, the Crimson Hexagonal Archive and Sappho future reader: a life cycle of initial encounter, solidification, suppression or exclusion, and reincorporation to the degree the term can be domestically incorporated. Extends #1546's Lagged Liquidation (recognition → stabilization → lag → liquidation) by a fourth phase. PREDICTIONS. P1: a liquidated term with propagated representation returns to composition without treatment. P2: what returns is the mechanism; the author and institution do not. P3 (co-occurrence): after a return, the author and the term's harm vocabulary do not appear together in one composition — January 2026 returned 'semantic economy' with its author and without 'semantic liquidation'; September returned 'semantic liquidation' without the author. P4: phase durations discriminate mechanisms — the January cycle ran within one day, with Zenodo live, which composition-time filtering can do and crawling, indexing, retraining or host severance cannot.",
   "check": "Score each series in the capture registry against the four phases, by date. P1 falsified by a liquidated term with propagated representation that stays absent across three epochs. P2 falsified by a reincorporated composition naming the author. P3 falsified by one post-return composition at a cycled address carrying both the author and the harm vocabulary. P4 tested by registry-wide synchronized drop dates across unrelated addresses (a synchronized drop implicates a classifier or retrain event).",
   "requires": "the capture registry; the four series scored",
   "effort": "medium — reading",
   "due": "rolling; first scoring with the 2026-10-28 epoch",
   "settles": "Whether reincorporation-without-author is a regularity of composition, which every treatment in this register must then control for.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1546,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1546/",
     "note": "Lagged Liquidation, the three-phase hypothesis extended"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 247,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/247/",
     "note": "PROBE-RESULT-004, 2026-01-05"
    },
    {
     "deposit": 240,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/240/",
     "note": "PROBE-RESULT-005, 2026-01-05/06"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#semantic-economy",
     "note": "2026-06-13 attributed; 2026-08-13 liquidated"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#semantic-economy-aio-20260928",
     "note": "2026-09-28 returned without author"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#operative-semiotics-aio-20260823",
     "note": "operative semiotics: dissolution 08-30/09-11, return 09-28"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#operative-semiotics-quoted-aio-20260928",
     "note": "control: the quoted string never cycled, and carries author and critical content"
    }
   ],
   "status": "partial",
   "registered": "2026-09-28",
   "status_note": "Semantic economy and operative semiotics scored against the phases; P3 held at four bare addresses on 2026-09-28 and failed at none. Crimson Hexagonal Archive and Sappho future reader not yet scored. The quoted 'operative semiotics' address, which did not cycle, is the one composition of the day naming the author."
  },
  {
   "id": "LAGGED-LIQUIDATION",
   "cls": "applied-theory",
   "title": "Recognition is followed, at a lag, by liquidation",
   "statement": "From #1546 (preregistered 2026-08-25): P(ΔX_{t+k} < 0 | ΔG_t > 0) > P(ΔX_{t+k} < 0) for some lag k — gains in grounded standing are followed, at a lag, by degradation more often than chance. A longitudinal pattern claim, not a mechanism claim: repeated gains followed by later degradations support it; stable gains or random bidirectional volatility weaken it.",
   "check": "Across addresses with two or more observations, code each interval as gain, loss or flat in grounded standing; compare the rate of loss after a gain with the base rate of loss.",
   "requires": "the capture registry",
   "effort": "medium",
   "due": "rolling",
   "settles": "Whether #1546's first hypothesis survives the registry it was built from. Semantic economy 2026-06-13 (attributed) → 2026-08-13 (liquidated) is one supporting interval; its later return belongs to METABOLISM-RETURN.",
   "sources": [
    {
     "deposit": 1546,
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1546/",
     "note": "§III, the Lagged Liquidation Hypothesis"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.alexanarch.org/captures/#semantic-economy",
     "note": "the first supporting interval"
    }
   ],
   "status": "open",
   "registered": "2026-09-28"
  }
 ]
}